Abstract: I will present the result of a joint work with Pr. Etienne Pardoux (Aix-Marseille Université), in which we studied an epidemic spreading in a population consisting of a collection of households, each containing a small number of individuals. Individuals have frequent contacts with other members of their household, and occasional contacts with individuals chosen at random from the rest of the population. I will present how the model approaches a deterministic limit as the number of households tends to infinity, and how this deterministic limit is described in terms of a Poisson driven McKen-Vlasov equation. This propagation of chaos result then allows us to define a “household reproduction number” which determines the endemic threshold : if this reproduction number is (strictly) larger than unity, the epidemic takes a very long time to disappear from the population.
Speaker: Dr. Raphaël Forien (INRAE French National Institute of Research in Agriculture, Food and the Environment, France)
Short biography of Speaker:
Raphaël Forien is a junior researcher at INRAE (French National Institute of Research in Agriculture, Food and the Environment), in Avignon, within the Biostatistiques et Processus Spatiaux (BIOSP) unit. His work focuses on spatio-temporal random processes and their applications to ecology and evolution. He studies measure-valued processes which describe the dynamics of structured populations, and various limiting behaviours of these processes (e.g. large population limit and fluctuations around this limit). He is interested in related models arising in population genetics, evolutionary ecology and general epidemic models.
In 2017, Raphaël Forien completed his Ph.D. in the CMAP at the Ecole Polytechnique, in Paris, under the supervision of Amandine Véber and Alison Etheridge
Coordinator: Dr. Antoine-Marie Bogso (Research Associate, AIMS Ghana)
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